A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
